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The Truth Will Out
4 months ago
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Syracuse National Contender in '08
After a trying 2-10 season in 2007, Syracuse is striving for perfection. Is 2008 the charm? Perhaps Greg Robinson can achieve a perfect 0-12 season in his forth year as head coach. It’s GRob’s Time: four years, his recruits, his offense, his defense, his special teams, his hand-pick staffed.
Syracuse made great strides last year under Robinson. Fan support was incredible. Syracuse was ranked 80th in the nation last year in attendance (percent stadium capacity – 70.65%). But there is room for improvement. Robinson is requesting that Syracuse fans give away their tickets to opponent fans or simply stay home. This will make his job much easier to do.
There is little room for improvement on offense. In rushing offense, Syracuse was 118th of 119 teams. In total offense, Syracuse was 114th. No doubt, Syracuse is no slouch – as they were trying to beat out a tough Notre Lame team that claimed the 119th spot. But Syracuse showed consistency across the board in offense, as they were 116th in scoring offense and they gave Notre Lame a run for their money in sacks allowed, placing 118th to Notre Lame’s 119th, losing to Notre Lame by only four sacks.
Robinson has more work to do on defense than offense to be perfect. Last year, the Orange was 108th in rushing defense and 102nd in pass defense. This combines for 111th for total defense, just slipping the Orange in the bottom 10 in football. Can GRob find the magic to field a team that actually looks like a football team while going 0-12? Anyone can let another team score on them, but it is much harder to look like you playing football while letting them score on you. It is obvious that Robinson has some pride left. In spring practice Robinson was constantly overheard telling players to tie their shoelaces. Apparently, tripping over yourself isn’t in Robinson’s play book.
There is no doubt the Syracuse can be the national contender in ’08, but it really is a matter of focus. Football analysts are nearly unanimous in the opinion that if Robinson stares at his Super Bowl rings long enough – really focuses on the past – that Syracuse has a chance. If that fails, perhaps Robinson can think about all of the bowl victories he has brought Syracuse. The entire Orange Nation can do that latter and on their death bed they will receive total consciousness.
Syracuse made great strides last year under Robinson. Fan support was incredible. Syracuse was ranked 80th in the nation last year in attendance (percent stadium capacity – 70.65%). But there is room for improvement. Robinson is requesting that Syracuse fans give away their tickets to opponent fans or simply stay home. This will make his job much easier to do.
There is little room for improvement on offense. In rushing offense, Syracuse was 118th of 119 teams. In total offense, Syracuse was 114th. No doubt, Syracuse is no slouch – as they were trying to beat out a tough Notre Lame team that claimed the 119th spot. But Syracuse showed consistency across the board in offense, as they were 116th in scoring offense and they gave Notre Lame a run for their money in sacks allowed, placing 118th to Notre Lame’s 119th, losing to Notre Lame by only four sacks.
Robinson has more work to do on defense than offense to be perfect. Last year, the Orange was 108th in rushing defense and 102nd in pass defense. This combines for 111th for total defense, just slipping the Orange in the bottom 10 in football. Can GRob find the magic to field a team that actually looks like a football team while going 0-12? Anyone can let another team score on them, but it is much harder to look like you playing football while letting them score on you. It is obvious that Robinson has some pride left. In spring practice Robinson was constantly overheard telling players to tie their shoelaces. Apparently, tripping over yourself isn’t in Robinson’s play book.
There is no doubt the Syracuse can be the national contender in ’08, but it really is a matter of focus. Football analysts are nearly unanimous in the opinion that if Robinson stares at his Super Bowl rings long enough – really focuses on the past – that Syracuse has a chance. If that fails, perhaps Robinson can think about all of the bowl victories he has brought Syracuse. The entire Orange Nation can do that latter and on their death bed they will receive total consciousness.
Did You Know? The BigTen Owns the BigLeast
All-time, all current Big Ten teams against all current BigLeast teams are 317-145-17. Not a single Big Ten team has a losing record against the BigLeast.
Did You Know? Penn State Owns the BigLeast
All-time, PSU is 170-77-11 against BigLeast Opponents. Since JoePa became head coach, PSU is 96-15-1 against the BigLeast
Syracuse Preview
Overview
Part of being a Happy Jack is stepping back and realizing the grass is not always greener. Being realistically optimistic is a prime Happy Jack principle. If you were a Syracuse fan, the grass has to be greener. It doesn’t get much worse. So while all the Sad Jacks complain about JoePa, a lack of a succession plan, and poor recruiting I am positive that any Syracuse fan would trade places. I’m not saying they would become Penn State fans (they hate PSU), but they would take our situation in Syracuse and it would be a significant improvement.
The problems with the Orange begin with their HC, Greg Robinson. Don’t let anyone spin this otherwise.
According to Syracuse media archives, “The appointment of Greg Robinson as Syracuse University’s 27th head football coach on January 11, 2005, put the program in the hands of a mentor with Super Bowl rings and Bowl-game triumphs on his resume. Considered one of the top defensive minds in football, Robinson fit the characteristics Syracuse Director of Athletics Dr. Daryl Gross was looking for in a head football coach.
“Greg Robinson brings a winning attitude and championship football tradition to our program,“ Gross said when announcing Robinson’s appointment. “He has had nothing but success in postseason games with four Rose Bowl rings, eight overall bowl victories in eight appearances and seven NFL postseason wins, including two Super Bowls.”
(sarcasm on) I don’t know about you, but I am scared. There’s no way JoePa could beat a coach like that. (sarcasm off)
Since coming to Syracuse, Robinson has a completely unimpressive 7-28 record. Syracuse was 2-10 last year. One thing that can be said about Robinson, he has never lost a bowl game while at Syracuse – he hasn’t been to one.
Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 13, 2008
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Place: Carrier Dome
Coverage: ABC
This is the third game of the season. Penn State will have just played a pretty decent Oregon State team and had to show a few of its offensive weapons. The offense will definitely be a little bit more open than Coastal Carolina game. My key performance indicators for the game are:
1. Fine Tune the Defense
Sacks, sacks and more sacks. How to measure: PSU – 10+ sacks, SU has negative yards rushing.
2. Keep the BigTen Honest up the Middle
This game is not about playing SU, it is telegraphing messages to Big Ten opponents. PSU needs to throw up the middle – 15, 20, 30 yards down field. How to measure: PSU – 400+ yards passing.
3. No Mistakes
SU is the biggest Cup Cake on the schedule. (Yes, a bigger Cup Cake than CCU) PSU needs to remain focused for four quarters and make no mistakes. That is the sign of a championship team. How to measure: No penalties, no turnovers.
A Very Offensive, Offensive Line
The heart of all offenses is the offensive line. Syracuse is returning three starters to one of the nation’s least effective lines, a line that ranked 118th in rushing and sacks allowed. The returning starters will be on the right side with Ryan Durand (SR/6-5/303) at guard and Corey Shavers (SR/6-5/295) at tackle. Durand and Chavers have the most experience with 23 and 18 games in the last two seasons respectively. The third returning starter is Jim McKenzie (SO/6-4/285) who has 10 games of experience at center.
The left side of the line will see a pair of neophyte sophomores. Tucker Baumback (SO/6-5/307) will start at tackle and will have the onerous job of protecting quarterback Andrew Robinson’s blindside. Ryan Bartholomew (SO/6-3/290) is the likely starter at left guard. Bartholomew made two appearances as freshman.
In terms of depth, the Orange offensive line is very shallow. Sophomore Adam Rosner (SO/6-6/303) saw limited action in eight games in 2007 but showed poor skills in pass protection, hence Bartholomew will probably get the starting spot. At tackle, Jonathan Meldrum (SO/6-5/305) was a top favorite for a starting role prior to having knee surgery. A full recovery of Meldrum will be a great asset to the Orange.
The shallowness of the Orange line really shows through, considering after a cripple (Meldrum), Nick Speller (FR/6-5/310) a true freshman, is second on the depth chart. Speller practiced this spring after entering college prior to high school graduation.
Facing the PSU Defense
The Nittany Lions will be hitting full stride entering their third game of the year against Syracuse. Only one defensive lineman of the two-deep roster for the Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M will not return this year – seldom-used defensive end Chris Rogers. This means significant experience working together.
The PSU defense was 2nd in nation with 46 sacks and 7th in the nation in scoring defense and rushing defense. This creates a complete mismatch for the Orange. As the Orange were 118th in sacks allowed and in rushing.
After facing Oregon State in the week prior to the Syracuse match up, Penn State will not have to hide its defensive plays from other Big Ten teams – PSU will have already showed its cards. This amounts to a full scale onslaught against the Syracuse offensive line. A reasonable expectation, yes reasonable and quite probable, is for the talented and deep PSU defensive line to have double digit sacks that will aid in establishing negative yards rushing for the Orange.
Left end Josh Gains with three years of experience, and left tackle Ollie Ogbu with a year experience have too much strength and speed for the new left side of the Orange offensive line. This game will not be won in the trenches, but in the backfield as Orange quarterback Andrew Robinson will be repeatedly hurried, hit, and sacked from his blind side. Abe Koroma will be able to man handle any running back trying to pass the line of scrimmage and right end Maurice Evans will be in Robinson’s face forcing quick passes that will lead to incomplete passes and interceptions.
Quarterbacks
Andrew Robinson (JR/6-3/222) will be in his second year as a starter after going 154 of 292 for 2,192 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Robinson has to deal with four severe weaknesses.
1. An terrible offensive line
2. No wide receivers with experience
3. No running game
4. And Robinson is not mobile
Robinson has plenty of experience picking turf from his face guard as the offensive line gave up 54 sacks last year. At least in the Carrier Dome, Robinson doesn’t have to worry about getting dirty from natural turf.
Robinson will become quite familiar with Penn State defensive linemen, linebackers and an occasional cornerback.
Running Backs
SU was 118th in rushing last year. Part of the problem was injuries. Senior Curtis Brinkley (SR/5-9/203) broke his leg in the middle of October. He did not see any contact in spring practice. Sophomore Delone Carter (SO/5-10/214) has to overcome a dislocated hip. Carter sat out all of 2007 and did not see any contact in spring practice. Senior Tony Fiammetta (SR/6-1/239) started eight games in 2007 as a fullback. Fiammetta carried the ball three times for 8 yards on the season.
Reserves are Dough Hogue (SO/6-2/215) and Averin Collier (FR/5-10/200). As a sophomore, Hogue carried the ball 77 times for 251 yards and one TD in 2007. Collier, a grey shirt freshman, practiced this spring getting a jump on other incoming freshmen. Collier suffered a fracture in his left foot halfway through spring practice.
Receivers
Syracuse wide receiver, Mike Williams, the Orange’s leading receiver last season, has been suspended by the school over an academic issue, the university confirmed Tuesday, June 3rd. Sue Edson, assistant athletics director for communications, said Williams was not enrolled in school. Head coach Greg Robinson cited privacy laws for not elaborating on Williams’ situation.
With the loss of Williams, it leaves the struggling Orange without their top two offensive threats from 2007; like they had any. As a team, Syracuse scored 18 passing touchdowns in 2007, with Williams and Taj Smith accounting for 15 scores.
Filling in SU WR spots will be Lavar Lobdell (JR/6-3/210), Donte Davis (SO/6-0/173), and Dan Sheeran (SO/6-3/217). Lobdell played in 12 games with 8 receptions for 86 yards and no TDs in ‘07. Sheeran started one game but saw action in 12 games. Sheeran had 4 receptions for 24 yards and no TDs in ’07. Donte Davis has not touched the ball.
A number that stands out: SU has zero receivers on their ’08 team that have scored a TD.
Defensive Line
Syracuse’s defensive line is, quite frankly, horrible. SU’s rushing defense ranked 108th in 2007. Originally, three of four starters were slated to return in ’08, until DE Brandon Gilbeaux was suspended in June for academic issues. Gilbeaux started 12 games for the Orange in ’07, but with the nearly offensive defensive line play, maybe it is best that someone else fills his role. That would be Lamar Middleton (RFR/6-3/254) or Chris Basile (JR/6-4/280).
The other returning linemen for the Orange are NT Arthur Jones (JR/6-4/291) and DE Vincenzo Giruzzi (SR/6-3/241). Jones started in 11 games and had 32 solo tackles and 19 assists. Jones is definitely the highlight of the returning linemen. Giruzzi played in 12 games and started 7. He had 22 solo tackles and 20 assists.
Rounding out the SU line will probably be DT Nick Santiago (SR/6-3/294) who saw limited action last year. Santiago started two games but played in all 12 games in ’07. He had 8 solo tackles and 9 assists.
A number that stands out: Returning SU linemen (starter and non-starters) accounted for 2 sacks in ’07.
Linebackers
SU returns one full-time linebacker, MLB Jake Flaherty (SR/6-1/228). Flaherty started all 12 games last year and was second on the team in tackles; 45 solo, 50 assists. Flaherty will be flanked by SLB Parker Cantey (SO/6-3/218) and WLB Mike Mele (SO/6-0/218). Cantey and Mele both played in 11 games and started 2 in ’07. Cantey had 16 solo tackles and 12 assists, Mele has 13 solo tackles and 16 assists.
This is a fairly inexperienced unit, that basically has nowhere to go but up.
Secondary
SU’s pass defense was 102nd worse defense in college football last year.
The defensive backfield for SU lacks experience. Two regular starters return, LC Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) and SS A.J. Brown (SR/6-0/201). At the right corner spot, Nico Scott will start (SO/5-10/180) and at free safety, Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200). This quartet saw action in all 12 games last season and managed a meager 3 interceptions.
Special Teams
Here are two numbers that say it all about SU special teams.
Punt Returns: 10
Kickoff Returns: 69
Those numbers are for the entire 2007 season. Why is that? Well, opponents were successful 47% and 46% of the time converting 3rd and 4th downs respectively against SU. Hence, only 10 punt returns and a bunch of kickoff returns after teams scored on SU. On the 10 punt returns, SU gained a total 46 yards with a long punt return of 13 yards. The good news for Penn State is that SU is returning their two starting punt returners, Ryan Howard (SR/5-8/185) and Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200).
Sixty-nine kickoff returns? Yes, that’s correct, Syracuse had plenty of practice in kickoff returns because opponents scored so much. Doing the bulk of kickoff returns in 2007 was Max Suter (SO/5-11/190). Suter had 51 returns for 1299 yards with a long of 93 yards and 1 TD. The 93 yard kick return must be SU’s only highlight of the season. Suter returns this season with backup Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) who returned 14 kicks in ’07 for 352 yards.
Performing place kicking duties for SU this year will be Patrick Shadle (SR/5-8/209). In ’07, opponents netted 35.9 yards on average against Shadle on kickoffs, with an average starting position on the 34 yard line. SU’s field position prevented Shadle from kicking many field goals. He was 10 for 14 in the 2007 season, with a long field goal of 50 yards. Shadle is pretty accurate in PATs going 23 for 24 in ’07.
The one bright spot of SU special teams is their punting game. Rob Long (SO/6-4/175) returns after averaging 41.9 yards on 75 punts in ’07. That is actually very good and show consistency.
The only other thing that stands out about SU’s special teams is their long snapper, Max Leo (JR/5-11/210). That’s right, 210lbs. That just smells like a bull rush up the middle to me.
Preseason Prediction
While the game is in Syracuse, the Carrier Dome will be half-filled with Lions fans. The Dome will not be hostile. Syracuse is the worse of the Cup Cakes that PSU faces this year. GRob is a failure as a coach. This will be an easy win for the Lions and perhaps the most lopsided victory Penn State has ever had over a Syracuse team. Historically speaking, how bad Penn State beats SU is a prime indicator of just how bad SU really is.
Part of being a Happy Jack is stepping back and realizing the grass is not always greener. Being realistically optimistic is a prime Happy Jack principle. If you were a Syracuse fan, the grass has to be greener. It doesn’t get much worse. So while all the Sad Jacks complain about JoePa, a lack of a succession plan, and poor recruiting I am positive that any Syracuse fan would trade places. I’m not saying they would become Penn State fans (they hate PSU), but they would take our situation in Syracuse and it would be a significant improvement.
The problems with the Orange begin with their HC, Greg Robinson. Don’t let anyone spin this otherwise.
According to Syracuse media archives, “The appointment of Greg Robinson as Syracuse University’s 27th head football coach on January 11, 2005, put the program in the hands of a mentor with Super Bowl rings and Bowl-game triumphs on his resume. Considered one of the top defensive minds in football, Robinson fit the characteristics Syracuse Director of Athletics Dr. Daryl Gross was looking for in a head football coach.
“Greg Robinson brings a winning attitude and championship football tradition to our program,“ Gross said when announcing Robinson’s appointment. “He has had nothing but success in postseason games with four Rose Bowl rings, eight overall bowl victories in eight appearances and seven NFL postseason wins, including two Super Bowls.”
(sarcasm on) I don’t know about you, but I am scared. There’s no way JoePa could beat a coach like that. (sarcasm off)
Since coming to Syracuse, Robinson has a completely unimpressive 7-28 record. Syracuse was 2-10 last year. One thing that can be said about Robinson, he has never lost a bowl game while at Syracuse – he hasn’t been to one.
Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 13, 2008
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Place: Carrier Dome
Coverage: ABC
This is the third game of the season. Penn State will have just played a pretty decent Oregon State team and had to show a few of its offensive weapons. The offense will definitely be a little bit more open than Coastal Carolina game. My key performance indicators for the game are:
1. Fine Tune the Defense
Sacks, sacks and more sacks. How to measure: PSU – 10+ sacks, SU has negative yards rushing.
2. Keep the BigTen Honest up the Middle
This game is not about playing SU, it is telegraphing messages to Big Ten opponents. PSU needs to throw up the middle – 15, 20, 30 yards down field. How to measure: PSU – 400+ yards passing.
3. No Mistakes
SU is the biggest Cup Cake on the schedule. (Yes, a bigger Cup Cake than CCU) PSU needs to remain focused for four quarters and make no mistakes. That is the sign of a championship team. How to measure: No penalties, no turnovers.
A Very Offensive, Offensive Line
The heart of all offenses is the offensive line. Syracuse is returning three starters to one of the nation’s least effective lines, a line that ranked 118th in rushing and sacks allowed. The returning starters will be on the right side with Ryan Durand (SR/6-5/303) at guard and Corey Shavers (SR/6-5/295) at tackle. Durand and Chavers have the most experience with 23 and 18 games in the last two seasons respectively. The third returning starter is Jim McKenzie (SO/6-4/285) who has 10 games of experience at center.
The left side of the line will see a pair of neophyte sophomores. Tucker Baumback (SO/6-5/307) will start at tackle and will have the onerous job of protecting quarterback Andrew Robinson’s blindside. Ryan Bartholomew (SO/6-3/290) is the likely starter at left guard. Bartholomew made two appearances as freshman.
In terms of depth, the Orange offensive line is very shallow. Sophomore Adam Rosner (SO/6-6/303) saw limited action in eight games in 2007 but showed poor skills in pass protection, hence Bartholomew will probably get the starting spot. At tackle, Jonathan Meldrum (SO/6-5/305) was a top favorite for a starting role prior to having knee surgery. A full recovery of Meldrum will be a great asset to the Orange.
The shallowness of the Orange line really shows through, considering after a cripple (Meldrum), Nick Speller (FR/6-5/310) a true freshman, is second on the depth chart. Speller practiced this spring after entering college prior to high school graduation.
Facing the PSU Defense
The Nittany Lions will be hitting full stride entering their third game of the year against Syracuse. Only one defensive lineman of the two-deep roster for the Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M will not return this year – seldom-used defensive end Chris Rogers. This means significant experience working together.
The PSU defense was 2nd in nation with 46 sacks and 7th in the nation in scoring defense and rushing defense. This creates a complete mismatch for the Orange. As the Orange were 118th in sacks allowed and in rushing.
After facing Oregon State in the week prior to the Syracuse match up, Penn State will not have to hide its defensive plays from other Big Ten teams – PSU will have already showed its cards. This amounts to a full scale onslaught against the Syracuse offensive line. A reasonable expectation, yes reasonable and quite probable, is for the talented and deep PSU defensive line to have double digit sacks that will aid in establishing negative yards rushing for the Orange.
Left end Josh Gains with three years of experience, and left tackle Ollie Ogbu with a year experience have too much strength and speed for the new left side of the Orange offensive line. This game will not be won in the trenches, but in the backfield as Orange quarterback Andrew Robinson will be repeatedly hurried, hit, and sacked from his blind side. Abe Koroma will be able to man handle any running back trying to pass the line of scrimmage and right end Maurice Evans will be in Robinson’s face forcing quick passes that will lead to incomplete passes and interceptions.
Quarterbacks
Andrew Robinson (JR/6-3/222) will be in his second year as a starter after going 154 of 292 for 2,192 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Robinson has to deal with four severe weaknesses.
1. An terrible offensive line
2. No wide receivers with experience
3. No running game
4. And Robinson is not mobile
Robinson has plenty of experience picking turf from his face guard as the offensive line gave up 54 sacks last year. At least in the Carrier Dome, Robinson doesn’t have to worry about getting dirty from natural turf.
Robinson will become quite familiar with Penn State defensive linemen, linebackers and an occasional cornerback.
Running Backs
SU was 118th in rushing last year. Part of the problem was injuries. Senior Curtis Brinkley (SR/5-9/203) broke his leg in the middle of October. He did not see any contact in spring practice. Sophomore Delone Carter (SO/5-10/214) has to overcome a dislocated hip. Carter sat out all of 2007 and did not see any contact in spring practice. Senior Tony Fiammetta (SR/6-1/239) started eight games in 2007 as a fullback. Fiammetta carried the ball three times for 8 yards on the season.
Reserves are Dough Hogue (SO/6-2/215) and Averin Collier (FR/5-10/200). As a sophomore, Hogue carried the ball 77 times for 251 yards and one TD in 2007. Collier, a grey shirt freshman, practiced this spring getting a jump on other incoming freshmen. Collier suffered a fracture in his left foot halfway through spring practice.
Receivers
Syracuse wide receiver, Mike Williams, the Orange’s leading receiver last season, has been suspended by the school over an academic issue, the university confirmed Tuesday, June 3rd. Sue Edson, assistant athletics director for communications, said Williams was not enrolled in school. Head coach Greg Robinson cited privacy laws for not elaborating on Williams’ situation.
With the loss of Williams, it leaves the struggling Orange without their top two offensive threats from 2007; like they had any. As a team, Syracuse scored 18 passing touchdowns in 2007, with Williams and Taj Smith accounting for 15 scores.
Filling in SU WR spots will be Lavar Lobdell (JR/6-3/210), Donte Davis (SO/6-0/173), and Dan Sheeran (SO/6-3/217). Lobdell played in 12 games with 8 receptions for 86 yards and no TDs in ‘07. Sheeran started one game but saw action in 12 games. Sheeran had 4 receptions for 24 yards and no TDs in ’07. Donte Davis has not touched the ball.
A number that stands out: SU has zero receivers on their ’08 team that have scored a TD.
Defensive Line
Syracuse’s defensive line is, quite frankly, horrible. SU’s rushing defense ranked 108th in 2007. Originally, three of four starters were slated to return in ’08, until DE Brandon Gilbeaux was suspended in June for academic issues. Gilbeaux started 12 games for the Orange in ’07, but with the nearly offensive defensive line play, maybe it is best that someone else fills his role. That would be Lamar Middleton (RFR/6-3/254) or Chris Basile (JR/6-4/280).
The other returning linemen for the Orange are NT Arthur Jones (JR/6-4/291) and DE Vincenzo Giruzzi (SR/6-3/241). Jones started in 11 games and had 32 solo tackles and 19 assists. Jones is definitely the highlight of the returning linemen. Giruzzi played in 12 games and started 7. He had 22 solo tackles and 20 assists.
Rounding out the SU line will probably be DT Nick Santiago (SR/6-3/294) who saw limited action last year. Santiago started two games but played in all 12 games in ’07. He had 8 solo tackles and 9 assists.
A number that stands out: Returning SU linemen (starter and non-starters) accounted for 2 sacks in ’07.
Linebackers
SU returns one full-time linebacker, MLB Jake Flaherty (SR/6-1/228). Flaherty started all 12 games last year and was second on the team in tackles; 45 solo, 50 assists. Flaherty will be flanked by SLB Parker Cantey (SO/6-3/218) and WLB Mike Mele (SO/6-0/218). Cantey and Mele both played in 11 games and started 2 in ’07. Cantey had 16 solo tackles and 12 assists, Mele has 13 solo tackles and 16 assists.
This is a fairly inexperienced unit, that basically has nowhere to go but up.
Secondary
SU’s pass defense was 102nd worse defense in college football last year.
The defensive backfield for SU lacks experience. Two regular starters return, LC Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) and SS A.J. Brown (SR/6-0/201). At the right corner spot, Nico Scott will start (SO/5-10/180) and at free safety, Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200). This quartet saw action in all 12 games last season and managed a meager 3 interceptions.
Special Teams
Here are two numbers that say it all about SU special teams.
Punt Returns: 10
Kickoff Returns: 69
Those numbers are for the entire 2007 season. Why is that? Well, opponents were successful 47% and 46% of the time converting 3rd and 4th downs respectively against SU. Hence, only 10 punt returns and a bunch of kickoff returns after teams scored on SU. On the 10 punt returns, SU gained a total 46 yards with a long punt return of 13 yards. The good news for Penn State is that SU is returning their two starting punt returners, Ryan Howard (SR/5-8/185) and Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200).
Sixty-nine kickoff returns? Yes, that’s correct, Syracuse had plenty of practice in kickoff returns because opponents scored so much. Doing the bulk of kickoff returns in 2007 was Max Suter (SO/5-11/190). Suter had 51 returns for 1299 yards with a long of 93 yards and 1 TD. The 93 yard kick return must be SU’s only highlight of the season. Suter returns this season with backup Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) who returned 14 kicks in ’07 for 352 yards.
Performing place kicking duties for SU this year will be Patrick Shadle (SR/5-8/209). In ’07, opponents netted 35.9 yards on average against Shadle on kickoffs, with an average starting position on the 34 yard line. SU’s field position prevented Shadle from kicking many field goals. He was 10 for 14 in the 2007 season, with a long field goal of 50 yards. Shadle is pretty accurate in PATs going 23 for 24 in ’07.
The one bright spot of SU special teams is their punting game. Rob Long (SO/6-4/175) returns after averaging 41.9 yards on 75 punts in ’07. That is actually very good and show consistency.
The only other thing that stands out about SU’s special teams is their long snapper, Max Leo (JR/5-11/210). That’s right, 210lbs. That just smells like a bull rush up the middle to me.
Preseason Prediction
While the game is in Syracuse, the Carrier Dome will be half-filled with Lions fans. The Dome will not be hostile. Syracuse is the worse of the Cup Cakes that PSU faces this year. GRob is a failure as a coach. This will be an easy win for the Lions and perhaps the most lopsided victory Penn State has ever had over a Syracuse team. Historically speaking, how bad Penn State beats SU is a prime indicator of just how bad SU really is.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Oregon State Preview
Overview
This is the first ever meeting between the Oregon State Beavers and PSU. OrSU is in a rebuilding year after finishing last season with a 9-4 record including a win over Maryland in the Emerald Bowl. The Beavers lose two starting offensive linemen and their entire starting defensive front seven. While these may sound like severe losses that can’t be overcome, it isn’t actually the case. OrSU linemen do have experience and talent. But do the OrSU linemen have enough time in their current positions in actual game situations as a working unit? This game will tell.
OrSU will be visiting Happy Valley for their second game of the season. Their first game is against Stanford. The difference between Stanford football and PSU football are too many to list. Penn State will have a huge advantage in the home crowd that will be several orders of magnitude louder than Stanford. This will be the biggest venue that OrSU has every played and perhaps the most hostile one.
Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 6, 2008
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Place: Beaver Stadium
Coverage: ABC
After the first week of conservative football against Coastal Carolina, Penn State will have to show more of their offense to win against OrSU. This game has a definite purpose on the PSU schedule. More than any other game in September, the OrSU game is a true game of preparation. OrSU is faster, stronger and better than all other teams PSU faces in September. Penn State will have bump it up a notch and focus on the following things to claim victory:
1. Ground Attack
OrSU was ranked #1 in the country in rushing defense last year. While the Beavers have a new defensive front seven, they are still expected to be good. By far, OrSU will provide the best defensive challenge to PSU in September. PSU needs to establish a ground attack in this game. If they don’t, you will see my high expectations diminish for the year. How to measure: Combined rushing yards (TB, FB, QB, SL) over 200 yards – tailback over 100 yards.
2. Home Field Advantage
Everyone in the Nittany Nation talks about the home field advantage. Coach Paterno needs to use this to his advantage. If possible, kick-off to OrSU to the start the game. Kick the ball through the end zone. Play begins on the 20. Do what it takes to have a three and out series with OrSU punting from its own 10 yard line. Use the short field to immediately score. There a number of variations on this, for instance and intercepted pass returned for a touchdown. And of course, sacking the OrSU QB would definitely pump up the crowd. The outcome desired is show strong defense and quickly scoring capability. How to measure: Three and out on first OrSU series. TD on first PSU possession.
3. Field Position
There would be nothing that I would enjoy more than a defensive battle, but what I enjoy is quite different that what pollsters enjoy. PSU needs to put points on the board, and do that frequently. Given OrSU’s strong defense, PSU has to take advantage of field position. This is done through PSU’s defense and special teams. Given a short field, PSU’s offense is more likely to put up more points. How to measure: Average non-kickoff starting field position: PSU 45 yard line.
Offensive Line
The Beaver’s offensive line lost two very good linemen, guard Roy Schuening and center Kyle DeVan to graduation. A third lineman, Tavita Thompson (SR/6-6/308) is ineligible to play until November 1. Thompson started the first 7 games of last season before being ruled ineligible. HC Mike Riley has not disclosed the reason for Thompson’s ineligibility citing student privacy laws. With the loss of three starters, OrSU has a lot of rebuilding to do.
This is nearly a complete overhaul of the OrSU line. PSU is returning all starters on their offensive line. This gives PSU a significant edge in game experience – particularly when playing as a unit and in the same position. OrSU has had to do some position juggling, moving players from one side of the line to the other. LT Andy Levitre (SR/6-3/324) started 12 games last year. Levitre was moved to LT for the final three games after starting 9 games at RT. At RG, Adam Speer (SR/6-3/301) is the leading candidate. Speer started ten games at LG and moved to RG towards the end of last season.
Jeremy Perry (SR/6-2/334) is the likely starter at LG. Perry was the projected starter last season at LG before suffering a broken leg in the first game of the season. Perry’s rehab is vital to the Beavers success. Perry was on the Outland and Lombardi watch lists for the past two years. With the loss of DeVan, OrSU has two main choices for the center position, Marcus Henderson (SR/6-4/277) and Ryan Pohl (RSO/6-3/288). Center is the most skilled position on the line, and filling DeVan’s position will be difficult.
The RT spot, previously held by ineligible Thompson, is a question mark. Michael Cole (SR/6-6/298) a JUCO transfer saw action last season at tackle. Starting on the depth chart according to Rivals.com is Mike Remmers (RFR/6-4/283) and backup Timi Oshinowo (SO/6-5/308).
HC Mike Riley is optimistic, stating, “The silver lining of last season on the line is that several guys experienced a new position and we had some guys learn what it’s like to start in this league. No question we have two very big holes to fill with the loss of Schuening and DeVan, but at the same time we are in better position this year for some new guys to make major contributions.”
Quarterbacks
There may be a quarterback controversy in Corvallis. Sean Canfield (JR/6-4/218) traded injuries with Lyle Moevao (JR/5-11/226) last season. Canfield started the first nine games of 2007 until he had an injury to his throwing shoulder. Moevao picked up the slack until he was injured and Canfield replaced Moevao in the Emerald Bowl with a 21-14 win over Maryland.
Canfield finished the 2007 season with 1,661 yards passing, 9 TDs with 165 completions on 286 attempts. Canfield threw 15 interceptions on the year. Moevao passed 876 yards (77-147-6) with two TDs. Moevao established himself as a leader, going undefeated in games that he started, including a Civil War victory over Oregon. Moevao received the majority of snaps at spring camp since Canfield was rehabilitating his injury.
Running Backs
So here’s the deal with OrSU’s running game: See Offensive Line. If the Beaver’s offensive line can come together, then there is some hope. OrSU needs to replace both their tailback and fullback this season. Ryan McCants (RFR/6-1/225) is the apparent starter at tailback. There is no fullback on the roster, so a change in positions may be in order to fill the position. (Looking at OrSU’s roster there are no running backs in the 240lbs range.) Backing up McCants will probably be JUCO transfer Jeremy Francis (JR/5-11/217).
On paper, the outlook for OrSU’s running game is not great. They need to break in a new tailback with essentially a new offensive line. That takes a lot of work. Facing PSU in the second game of the season isn’t enough time. However, OrSU’s running game will more than likely be a completely different beast by the end of the season.
Receivers
OrSU has a boat load of tight ends. Howard Croom (JR/6-3/248) leads the pack at starting TE. The Beavers run a lot of 2 and 3 receiver sets. At SE, Sammie Stroughter (SR/6-0/189) returns after a season ending injury last year. Stroughter was an All-American in 2006 and is a force to be reckoned. Stroughter will be backed up with Chris Johnson (SR/6-1/198). Johnson played in nine games last season with 7 receptions for a total of 93 yards.
James Rodgers (SO/5-7/179) has speed. Rodgers will play any other receiver positions, but will start at either SL or FL. Rodgers is also known to run the “devastating” Fly-Sweep. This should not pose a significant problem for the Penn State defense. It is known quantity, and PSU has the defensive speed to shut it down.
At SL, Shane Morales (SR/6-1/199) returns after 13 games of experience in 2007 when he had 16 receptions for 115 yards. At FL, Darrell Catchings (SO/5-11/174) is the team’s leading returning receiver. Catchings had 33 receptions for 386 yards in 2007.
The receiving corps is probably the most talented and stable units on the Beavers. In terms of impact in the PSU game, a lot is up to Penn State’s defensive line. PSU returns a highly experience defensive line, perhaps one of the best in the nation, that is able to rush and sack quarterbacks. If Canfield is on his can most of the game, the OrSU receiving corps will be neutralized.
Defensive Line
The Beavers lead all of college football in rushing defense in 2007. In 2008, the entire front seven are gone. However, three returning players saw considerable action. Pernnell Booth (SR/6-1/302) has three years of experience at DT. Booth missed spring camp with a foot injury. Victor Butler (SR/6-2/238) and Slade Norris (SR/6-3/254) have earned three and two varsity letters respectively at DE. Butler and Norris combined for 19.5 sacks and 213 lost yards as third down pass rushers last season.
The real big question mark for OrSU’s defensive line is at the other tackle spot and backups across the board. Stephen Paea (SO/6-1/303) is a JUCO transfer is at the top of the depth chart at the other tackle position. The only other lineman that has earned a letter is Mitchell Hunt (SO/6-2/285), although he has been plagued by injuries for the past two years.
The OrSU defensive line will be facing a solid PSU offensive line that has all returning starters and nearly two years of playing together. This will be a formable battle in the trenches for the Beavers.
Linebackers
The loss of OrSU’s defensive front seven includes three linebackers, Derrick Dogget, Alan Darlin and Joey LaRocque. However, the Beavers are not starting from scratch in filling their linebacker spots. There are several linebackers that have considerable experience. At WLB, Keith Pankey (SO/6-3/210) saw enough action last year to earn a letter. Pankey played in 10 games with 8 solo tackles and 2 assists. Pankey will probably be backed up by Dwight Roberson (SO/6-0/234) who had 10 solo tackles and 2 assists last year.
At the SLB spot, Keaton Kristick (JR/6-3/227) returns after having playing in 13 games with 6 solo tackles and 9 assists. At MLB, Bryant Cornell (SR/6-1/235) will be sole starting senior of OrSU’s linebackers. Cornell has lettered in all three of his three years with the Beavers, playing in 12 games in 2007 with 5 solo tackles and 8 assists.
There really is no comparison between PSU and OrSU’s linebackers. PSU is Linebacker-U. Despite the loss of Sean Lee to injury, PSU has a stable of linebackers and the best linebacker coach in college football. PSU returns with experience and talent.
Secondary
OrSU’s secondary is the most experienced defensive unit on the Beavers. Cornerbacks, Brandon Hughs (SR/5-11/177) and Keenan Lewis (SR/6-1/199) both have lettered in the three previous seasons. Hughes and Lewis have a combined 65 starts. At the safety position, Al Afalava (SR/5-11/212) and Greg Layborum (SR/5-10/201) return. Bryan Payton another senior safety left the football program in July after playing in 26 games with six starts. (This was probably due to academics.)
Afalava is the returning team leader in tackles. Afalava had had 56 solo tackles, 8 assists with one sack, no INTs. Hughes is 2nd in returning tacklers with 43 solos and 14 assists and 2 picks.
It will be interesting to see how PSU’s receiving tandem of Butler, Norwood, and Williams handle this talented OrSU secondary. The amount of experience between PSU receivers and OrSU’s secondary is immense – and talent on both sides of the ball. But of course to keep this Happy Jack happy, all that Penn State needs to do is handoff the ball.
Special Teams
On the kicking side of special teams, the Beavers have little experience. OrSU is breaking in a new kicker, Justin Kahut (SO/5-8/158). Kahut made one field goal in 2007 on one attempt. Sean Sehmen (JR/5-11/195) is a transfer from Western New Mexico University and has yet to see a snap as a Beaver. Sehmen is slated as the starting punter for OrSU.
Sammie Stroughter, the talented WR will see punt return duties with Taylor Kavanaugh (JR/5-10/174). Kavanaugh will also see action as the holder. James Rodgers and Patrick Henderson (JR/5-10/180) will be returning kicks. Rodgers returned 5 kicks in 2007 for 122 yards. Henderson returned 1 kick for 11 yards. Stroughter is perhaps the most dangerous return man if he can remain healthy. However, facing PSU punt defense is a difficult task. PSU allowed a stingy 5.3 yards per punt return in 2007.
In terms of PSU special teams, Williams and Wallace will have return duties. Williams returned 23 punts for 254 yards, 1 TD on a long punt return of 78 yards. Wallace is returning kickoffs after have 22 returns and 581 yards in 2007. Wallace had a long kick off return of 97 yards for a TD. On the other side of the ball, Jeremy Boone led the Big Ten in punting in 2008 and Kevin Kelly is Mr. Reliable when it comes to PATs and field goals.
Preseason Prediction
Penn State wins. With OrSU replacing their defensive front seven and this being the second game of the season, OrSU’s defensive will not have hit their stride. OrSU has to face a well seasoned PSU offensive line, with all starters returning. PSU’s defensive line will also be too much for OrSU’s offensive line to handle. This game will be won in the trenches.
This is the first ever meeting between the Oregon State Beavers and PSU. OrSU is in a rebuilding year after finishing last season with a 9-4 record including a win over Maryland in the Emerald Bowl. The Beavers lose two starting offensive linemen and their entire starting defensive front seven. While these may sound like severe losses that can’t be overcome, it isn’t actually the case. OrSU linemen do have experience and talent. But do the OrSU linemen have enough time in their current positions in actual game situations as a working unit? This game will tell.
OrSU will be visiting Happy Valley for their second game of the season. Their first game is against Stanford. The difference between Stanford football and PSU football are too many to list. Penn State will have a huge advantage in the home crowd that will be several orders of magnitude louder than Stanford. This will be the biggest venue that OrSU has every played and perhaps the most hostile one.
Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 6, 2008
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Place: Beaver Stadium
Coverage: ABC
After the first week of conservative football against Coastal Carolina, Penn State will have to show more of their offense to win against OrSU. This game has a definite purpose on the PSU schedule. More than any other game in September, the OrSU game is a true game of preparation. OrSU is faster, stronger and better than all other teams PSU faces in September. Penn State will have bump it up a notch and focus on the following things to claim victory:
1. Ground Attack
OrSU was ranked #1 in the country in rushing defense last year. While the Beavers have a new defensive front seven, they are still expected to be good. By far, OrSU will provide the best defensive challenge to PSU in September. PSU needs to establish a ground attack in this game. If they don’t, you will see my high expectations diminish for the year. How to measure: Combined rushing yards (TB, FB, QB, SL) over 200 yards – tailback over 100 yards.
2. Home Field Advantage
Everyone in the Nittany Nation talks about the home field advantage. Coach Paterno needs to use this to his advantage. If possible, kick-off to OrSU to the start the game. Kick the ball through the end zone. Play begins on the 20. Do what it takes to have a three and out series with OrSU punting from its own 10 yard line. Use the short field to immediately score. There a number of variations on this, for instance and intercepted pass returned for a touchdown. And of course, sacking the OrSU QB would definitely pump up the crowd. The outcome desired is show strong defense and quickly scoring capability. How to measure: Three and out on first OrSU series. TD on first PSU possession.
3. Field Position
There would be nothing that I would enjoy more than a defensive battle, but what I enjoy is quite different that what pollsters enjoy. PSU needs to put points on the board, and do that frequently. Given OrSU’s strong defense, PSU has to take advantage of field position. This is done through PSU’s defense and special teams. Given a short field, PSU’s offense is more likely to put up more points. How to measure: Average non-kickoff starting field position: PSU 45 yard line.
Offensive Line
The Beaver’s offensive line lost two very good linemen, guard Roy Schuening and center Kyle DeVan to graduation. A third lineman, Tavita Thompson (SR/6-6/308) is ineligible to play until November 1. Thompson started the first 7 games of last season before being ruled ineligible. HC Mike Riley has not disclosed the reason for Thompson’s ineligibility citing student privacy laws. With the loss of three starters, OrSU has a lot of rebuilding to do.
This is nearly a complete overhaul of the OrSU line. PSU is returning all starters on their offensive line. This gives PSU a significant edge in game experience – particularly when playing as a unit and in the same position. OrSU has had to do some position juggling, moving players from one side of the line to the other. LT Andy Levitre (SR/6-3/324) started 12 games last year. Levitre was moved to LT for the final three games after starting 9 games at RT. At RG, Adam Speer (SR/6-3/301) is the leading candidate. Speer started ten games at LG and moved to RG towards the end of last season.
Jeremy Perry (SR/6-2/334) is the likely starter at LG. Perry was the projected starter last season at LG before suffering a broken leg in the first game of the season. Perry’s rehab is vital to the Beavers success. Perry was on the Outland and Lombardi watch lists for the past two years. With the loss of DeVan, OrSU has two main choices for the center position, Marcus Henderson (SR/6-4/277) and Ryan Pohl (RSO/6-3/288). Center is the most skilled position on the line, and filling DeVan’s position will be difficult.
The RT spot, previously held by ineligible Thompson, is a question mark. Michael Cole (SR/6-6/298) a JUCO transfer saw action last season at tackle. Starting on the depth chart according to Rivals.com is Mike Remmers (RFR/6-4/283) and backup Timi Oshinowo (SO/6-5/308).
HC Mike Riley is optimistic, stating, “The silver lining of last season on the line is that several guys experienced a new position and we had some guys learn what it’s like to start in this league. No question we have two very big holes to fill with the loss of Schuening and DeVan, but at the same time we are in better position this year for some new guys to make major contributions.”
Quarterbacks
There may be a quarterback controversy in Corvallis. Sean Canfield (JR/6-4/218) traded injuries with Lyle Moevao (JR/5-11/226) last season. Canfield started the first nine games of 2007 until he had an injury to his throwing shoulder. Moevao picked up the slack until he was injured and Canfield replaced Moevao in the Emerald Bowl with a 21-14 win over Maryland.
Canfield finished the 2007 season with 1,661 yards passing, 9 TDs with 165 completions on 286 attempts. Canfield threw 15 interceptions on the year. Moevao passed 876 yards (77-147-6) with two TDs. Moevao established himself as a leader, going undefeated in games that he started, including a Civil War victory over Oregon. Moevao received the majority of snaps at spring camp since Canfield was rehabilitating his injury.
Running Backs
So here’s the deal with OrSU’s running game: See Offensive Line. If the Beaver’s offensive line can come together, then there is some hope. OrSU needs to replace both their tailback and fullback this season. Ryan McCants (RFR/6-1/225) is the apparent starter at tailback. There is no fullback on the roster, so a change in positions may be in order to fill the position. (Looking at OrSU’s roster there are no running backs in the 240lbs range.) Backing up McCants will probably be JUCO transfer Jeremy Francis (JR/5-11/217).
On paper, the outlook for OrSU’s running game is not great. They need to break in a new tailback with essentially a new offensive line. That takes a lot of work. Facing PSU in the second game of the season isn’t enough time. However, OrSU’s running game will more than likely be a completely different beast by the end of the season.
Receivers
OrSU has a boat load of tight ends. Howard Croom (JR/6-3/248) leads the pack at starting TE. The Beavers run a lot of 2 and 3 receiver sets. At SE, Sammie Stroughter (SR/6-0/189) returns after a season ending injury last year. Stroughter was an All-American in 2006 and is a force to be reckoned. Stroughter will be backed up with Chris Johnson (SR/6-1/198). Johnson played in nine games last season with 7 receptions for a total of 93 yards.
James Rodgers (SO/5-7/179) has speed. Rodgers will play any other receiver positions, but will start at either SL or FL. Rodgers is also known to run the “devastating” Fly-Sweep. This should not pose a significant problem for the Penn State defense. It is known quantity, and PSU has the defensive speed to shut it down.
At SL, Shane Morales (SR/6-1/199) returns after 13 games of experience in 2007 when he had 16 receptions for 115 yards. At FL, Darrell Catchings (SO/5-11/174) is the team’s leading returning receiver. Catchings had 33 receptions for 386 yards in 2007.
The receiving corps is probably the most talented and stable units on the Beavers. In terms of impact in the PSU game, a lot is up to Penn State’s defensive line. PSU returns a highly experience defensive line, perhaps one of the best in the nation, that is able to rush and sack quarterbacks. If Canfield is on his can most of the game, the OrSU receiving corps will be neutralized.
Defensive Line
The Beavers lead all of college football in rushing defense in 2007. In 2008, the entire front seven are gone. However, three returning players saw considerable action. Pernnell Booth (SR/6-1/302) has three years of experience at DT. Booth missed spring camp with a foot injury. Victor Butler (SR/6-2/238) and Slade Norris (SR/6-3/254) have earned three and two varsity letters respectively at DE. Butler and Norris combined for 19.5 sacks and 213 lost yards as third down pass rushers last season.
The real big question mark for OrSU’s defensive line is at the other tackle spot and backups across the board. Stephen Paea (SO/6-1/303) is a JUCO transfer is at the top of the depth chart at the other tackle position. The only other lineman that has earned a letter is Mitchell Hunt (SO/6-2/285), although he has been plagued by injuries for the past two years.
The OrSU defensive line will be facing a solid PSU offensive line that has all returning starters and nearly two years of playing together. This will be a formable battle in the trenches for the Beavers.
Linebackers
The loss of OrSU’s defensive front seven includes three linebackers, Derrick Dogget, Alan Darlin and Joey LaRocque. However, the Beavers are not starting from scratch in filling their linebacker spots. There are several linebackers that have considerable experience. At WLB, Keith Pankey (SO/6-3/210) saw enough action last year to earn a letter. Pankey played in 10 games with 8 solo tackles and 2 assists. Pankey will probably be backed up by Dwight Roberson (SO/6-0/234) who had 10 solo tackles and 2 assists last year.
At the SLB spot, Keaton Kristick (JR/6-3/227) returns after having playing in 13 games with 6 solo tackles and 9 assists. At MLB, Bryant Cornell (SR/6-1/235) will be sole starting senior of OrSU’s linebackers. Cornell has lettered in all three of his three years with the Beavers, playing in 12 games in 2007 with 5 solo tackles and 8 assists.
There really is no comparison between PSU and OrSU’s linebackers. PSU is Linebacker-U. Despite the loss of Sean Lee to injury, PSU has a stable of linebackers and the best linebacker coach in college football. PSU returns with experience and talent.
Secondary
OrSU’s secondary is the most experienced defensive unit on the Beavers. Cornerbacks, Brandon Hughs (SR/5-11/177) and Keenan Lewis (SR/6-1/199) both have lettered in the three previous seasons. Hughes and Lewis have a combined 65 starts. At the safety position, Al Afalava (SR/5-11/212) and Greg Layborum (SR/5-10/201) return. Bryan Payton another senior safety left the football program in July after playing in 26 games with six starts. (This was probably due to academics.)
Afalava is the returning team leader in tackles. Afalava had had 56 solo tackles, 8 assists with one sack, no INTs. Hughes is 2nd in returning tacklers with 43 solos and 14 assists and 2 picks.
It will be interesting to see how PSU’s receiving tandem of Butler, Norwood, and Williams handle this talented OrSU secondary. The amount of experience between PSU receivers and OrSU’s secondary is immense – and talent on both sides of the ball. But of course to keep this Happy Jack happy, all that Penn State needs to do is handoff the ball.
Special Teams
On the kicking side of special teams, the Beavers have little experience. OrSU is breaking in a new kicker, Justin Kahut (SO/5-8/158). Kahut made one field goal in 2007 on one attempt. Sean Sehmen (JR/5-11/195) is a transfer from Western New Mexico University and has yet to see a snap as a Beaver. Sehmen is slated as the starting punter for OrSU.
Sammie Stroughter, the talented WR will see punt return duties with Taylor Kavanaugh (JR/5-10/174). Kavanaugh will also see action as the holder. James Rodgers and Patrick Henderson (JR/5-10/180) will be returning kicks. Rodgers returned 5 kicks in 2007 for 122 yards. Henderson returned 1 kick for 11 yards. Stroughter is perhaps the most dangerous return man if he can remain healthy. However, facing PSU punt defense is a difficult task. PSU allowed a stingy 5.3 yards per punt return in 2007.
In terms of PSU special teams, Williams and Wallace will have return duties. Williams returned 23 punts for 254 yards, 1 TD on a long punt return of 78 yards. Wallace is returning kickoffs after have 22 returns and 581 yards in 2007. Wallace had a long kick off return of 97 yards for a TD. On the other side of the ball, Jeremy Boone led the Big Ten in punting in 2008 and Kevin Kelly is Mr. Reliable when it comes to PATs and field goals.
Preseason Prediction
Penn State wins. With OrSU replacing their defensive front seven and this being the second game of the season, OrSU’s defensive will not have hit their stride. OrSU has to face a well seasoned PSU offensive line, with all starters returning. PSU’s defensive line will also be too much for OrSU’s offensive line to handle. This game will be won in the trenches.
Coastal Carolina Preview
Overview
Coastal Carolina University was founded in 1954 and became an independent university in 1993. Located in Conway, South Carolina, CCU has a student body just over 7,800. The mascot/nickname for the university is the Chanticleer, the crafty quick-thinking rooster from Chaucer's Canterbury Tales. The first year of football for CCU was in 2003. Their overall all-time record is 34-11 and the Chants have appeared in the NCAA playoffs, once in 2005, losing to Appalachian State 45-28. The Chants play in the Big South Conference.
There is a temptation to look down upon a team like Coastal Carolina. After all, they are not even a Division 1-A program (FBS). So what business do they have in playing Penn State? Actually, they have plenty business in playing Penn State. CCU has been developing a successful program at Division 1-AA. CCU was the Big South Conference champions in '04, '05, and '06. Last year was a rebuilding year after losing 36 seniors. This year looks hopeful for CCU and by playing teams like Penn State they gain valuable experience at a level that benefits them when playing other 1-AA teams. Plus there is a pay check in the deal that will provide more revenue than they will take in at their gates all year.
It takes guts to come into Beaver stadium when you are used to playing in front of ten thousand people. Everything will be bigger in Happy Valley. The stadium. The crowd. The tailgating. The football players. In the process CCU gains valuable insight in how to develop their program, and maybe develop some traditions in the process. Penn State gets some valuable experience in the process as well. CCU has a winning tradition. Two other teams on Penn State's cup cake schedule do not, at least not recently – Syracuse and Temple. In fact, CCU would probably beat Syracuse this year, and put up a good battle against Temple.
So when evaluating cup cakes, CCU is not the number one cup cake, if fact, CCU might be the best of the cup cakes. We all know what happened to Michigan last year against ASU. But let's not get too carried away. Penn State will remember what happened to Michigan, and CCU will be handily beat.
It's not a great feeling beating CCU, but the tailgating should be fun, and it allows Penn State to prepare for the Big Ten season and establish some fundamentals. Hopefully, PSU will be able to establish some rhythm and get their defense going strong.
Looking Forward to the Game
Date: August 30, 2008
Time: Noon ET
Place: Beaver Stadium
Coverage: Big Ten Network
It is the start to a new season. Expect a conservative game from Penn State, since Penn State rarely shows much prior to the Big Ten season opener. My key performance indicators for the game are:
- Lack of Mistakes
Mistakes reveal the amount of focus this team has. PSU is playing a Cup Cake, and it's difficult to get up for a Cup Cake and remain focused for 4 quarters of football. PSU needs to go onto the field and execute for the entire game without turnovers and without penalties. PSU was ranked 41st in Division I football in '07 with a turnover margin of +.15. That is just breaking even. Penn State lost 16 fumbles and 10 interceptions on the year. That's just handing the ball to the opponent 26 times – without punting. How to measure: PSU – zero fumbles, zero INT.
PSU was 4th in the nation last year in fewest penalties (13 games/58 penalties/4.46 per game) and 3rd in the nation fewest yards penalized per game (34.31 yards/game). This is an area that can be improved and when improved, PSU's field position will be better. PSU needs to get off to a better start than last year when they had 5 penalties for 50 yards against FIU. How to measure: PSU – zero penalties.
- Defensive Front Seven
There are some question marks about the defense, especially at linebacker with the loss of Sean Lee for the season. PSU is Linebacker U for a reason, so the talent will be there, but will the talent be ready to play together. The relationship between the defensive line and linebackers is critical in stopping the run and in short yardage passing situations. If the line and linebackers work together then this defense can be better than last year. PSU was 7th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 93.8 yards per game. While not shabby, there is room for improvement, especially with the experience coming back on the defensive line. In last year's season opener, PSU held FIU to -3 yards rushing. This stat is enhanced by 7 sacks for 50 yards lost. In all honesty, to have an exceptional rushing defense it has to have sacks. How to measure: PSU – 10+ sacks, CCU negative yards rushing.
- Offensive Line
Last year's offensive line was good, and they all return. Do they pick up where they left off? Let's hope so. The quarterback needs all day to pass and tailbacks need huge holes to run through. PSU's offensive line is significantly larger and stronger that CCU's defense. The CCU defense's only hope is speed. Last year against FIU, PSU allowed two sacks – an area for improvement. Scott, Kinlaw, and Royster averaged 4.2, 8.2, and 8.8 yards per carry respectively, each having long carries over 20 yards, but under 30 yards. How to measure: No sacks, No hurries, and the QB's uniform remains unsoiled. Yards per carry for all tailbacks and fullbacks over 10 yards.
Offensive Line
Britt Leggett (6-6/295) is the only senior that plays offensive line for the Chants. Literally, there are no other seniors that play offensive line. He leads the Chant's with three varsity letters. A cadre of younger players, including two juniors and three sophomores will see duty on the line:
LT Alex Wolfe (So., 6-5/260 lbs)
LG Seth Smalles (So., 6-5/310 lbs)
C Ryan Boehm (Jr., 6-1/300 lbs)
RG James Sims (Jr., 6-4/280 lbs)
RT Britt Leggett (Sr., 6-6/295 lbs)
The 2008 season will determine how cohesive this line unit will be. In 2007, the Chants offensive line was one of the larger question marks of the team. In spring practice, the above unit was one of the more stable units.
Quarterbacks
William Richardson (Sr., 6-5/230 lbs) played in 11 games last season and was 131-229-7, hitting 57.2% of his passes. Richardson is CCU's only quarterback with significant experience. Given that CCU's receiving corps is in the process of rebuilding, Richardson will have a difficult senior year. Richardson has Jamar Anderson as his only returning target from 2007.
Running Backs
The Chants running game in 2007 was lead by FB Mike Tolbert with 111 rushes for 748 yards. Tolbert has graduated. Other backs for the Chants saw lots of playing time in the 2007 season and all are returning:
RB Jamie Fordham (Sr., 6-0/190 lbs, 9 games, 82 att/444 yds, 5.4 avg, 1 TD)
RB Eric O'Neal (So., 5-10/185 lbs, 11 games 72 att/325 yds. 4.5 avg, 1 TD)
RB Arthur Sitton (Sr., 5-8/165 lbs, 11 games, 28 att/176 yds. 6.3 avg, 3 TD)
FB Tommy Fraser (So., 5-10/240 lbs, 11 games 24 att/81 yds, 3.3 avg, 5 TD)
FB Racheed Guase (Jr., 5-11/255 lbs, 10 games, 29 att/164 yds, 5.7 avg, 1 TD)
Jamie Fordham was held out of spring practice to work on academics. Eric O'Neal and Arthur Sitton received the majority of running work in the spring. Going into fall season it is an open competition between Fordham, O'Neal and Sitton. Running is the Chants strength, but they will not match for PSU's stingy rushing defense; only allowed 93 yards per game last year. Nearly everyone on PSU's run defense is returning to play in 2008.
Receivers
The Chants are losing 3 of their primary wide receivers in 2008. Wide out, junior Jamar Anderson has the most experience of the returning receivers with 25 touches. The remaining receivers combined touched the ball a total of 4 times in 2007. In comparison, PSU's Williams, Butler, and Norwood caught the ball, 55, 47, and 40 times respectively.
Apparently the receiving corps at CCU is so weakened by losing 3 receivers that QB Sean Fortson worked exclusively with receivers in spring practice. It appears that his move from quarterback is now permanent, barring any injuries at QB.
Defensive Line
CCU's defensive line is losing three starters to graduation and another three graduating linemen that played in 9 or more games. CCU employed more 3-4 defensive sets in this year's spring practice, a departure from the 4-3 base it used the majority of last season. Coastal Carolina coach David Bennett said that the change is simply because of the Chants' assets: more quality linebackers than defensive linemen.
"We used to use [the 3-4] all the time," Bennett said. "It's about flexibility. ... We still better be a multiple defense."
Four linemen from CCU's two-deep depth chart return this year; defensive ends Ronnie Mason (Sr., 6-3/260 lbs, 18 solo/16 asst. tackles, 2 sacks), Warren Jennings (Sr., 6-3/235 lbs, 11 solo/10 asst. tackles, .5 sacks), and Phillip Oboh (Jr., 6-2/220 lbs, 29 solo/25 asst. tackles, 4 sacks); and nose tackle Clarence Donley (Sr., 6-4/260 lbs, 12 solo/10 asst. tackles, .5 sacks). Light-weight Oboh (220 lbs) will probably move to linebacker from end, especially with CCU's leading tackler OLB Anthony Steele graduating and very few other linemen seeing action last season.
Defensive line reserves include:
Wesley Foushee-Pugh (Jr., 6-4/240 lbs – 1 game, 1 asst. tackle)
JoJo Grant (Jr., 6-0/215 lbs – 1 game, 1 solo tackle)
E.J Rascoe (Sr., 6-0/252 lbs – no action)
Brooks Barbaree (So., 6-2/285 lbs – no action)
Dexter Holman (So., 6-3/210 lbs – no action)
B.J. Jenkins (So., 6-2/212 lbs – no action)
Defensive Tackle Robert Balkunas, (6-1/285 lbs) from Lackawanna Junior College will be joining the CCU this fall.
The one thing that sticks out about CCU's defensive line is their size, with only two players over 260lbs. The average weight of the line is 243 lbs, which is comparable to the weight of the PSU linebacker corps. The PSU offensive line weighs in on average at 294 lbs. CCU will be undersized by 51 lbs. Penn State's quarter back should go untouched and there should be large holes for the tailbacks to run through.
Linebackers
The Chants lost their number one tackler to graduation, LB Anthony Steele. Steele had 34 solo tackles, 31 assists, 3 sacks and an interception. Derrick Frasier and D.J. Rice are penciled in at inside linebacker with Chris Walls and Phillip Oboh outside. Oboh is making a transition to outside linebacker from end, though Head Coach Bennett says he can still play at the end position in a 4-3 alignment. CCU linebackers coach Grant Cain said that the spring offers experimental time and that this does not mean the Chants will come out in a 3-4 base set at Penn State in their season opener. But the 3-4 figures to improve the pass rush and the Chants' run defense can go nowhere but up.
OLB – Phillip Oboh (Jr., 6-2/220 lbs, 11 games, 29 solo/25 asst. tackles, 4 sacks)
ILB – Derrick Fraiser (So., 5-11/215 lbs, 10 games, 14 solo/20 asst. tackles, 1 sack)
ILB – D.J. Rice (Sr., 6-0/235 lbs, 11 games, 24 solo/26 asst. tackles, 1 sack)
OLB – Chris Walls (So., 6-2/200 lbs, 10 games, 8 solo/10 asst. tackles)
Midway through last season CCU began running Keon Cunningham (So., 6-1/200 lbs, 22 solo/8 asst. tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) at NICK back.
Linebacker reserves include:
Chase Howe (Sr., 5-11/210 lbs, 16 solo/18 asst. tackles, 1 sack)
Kent Harper (So. 6-1/210 lbs, 2 solo/9 asst. tackles, .5 sack)
Ronnie Gains (Sr. 6-0/210 lbs, 1 asst. tackle)
Joe Rosko (So., 5-10/200 lbs, 1 asst. tackle)
Gabe Moreland (Jr., 5-10/194 lbs – no action)
Desmond Steward (So., 6-0/225 lbs – no action)
Again size is an issue with CCU's defense when compared to PSU. PSU can run TEs Szcerba and Quarless (both 252lbs) through CCU's linebacker corps all day long and open up the running game in a punishing manner.
Secondary
PSU is not the only team affected by legal issues. CCU defensive backs Mario Tynes and Eric Brown, Jr. were arrested along with wide receiver Ricky Johnson after police stopped the car they were in and found two guns, three pounds of marijuana and $1,345.00 in cash. The players were immediately removed from the football program and their scholarships were revoked. This incident has left CCU short at corner.
CCU Head Coach Bennett said the cornerback Antonio Bellamy might not return to the team. Bellamy was held out of spring camp because of a neck injury, making his future cloudy. Bellamy, a projected starter last season, missed much of the year because of turf toe. The loss of Tynes, Brown, and Bellamy have left CCU very shallow at corner. Projected to start in '08 are Marrio Norman and Whittmin Reese.
RCB Whittmin Resse (Sr., 5-8/165 lbs, 11 games, 29 solo/9 asst. tackles, 3 INT)
LCB Marrio Norman (Sr., 5-11/180 lbs, 8 games, 28 solo/25 asst. tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT)
At safety, Jr., Dominique Davenport (5-11/200 lbs) returns. Davenport was second in tackles for CCU in 2007 (37 solo/24 asst. tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT). Jr., Brandon Autry (5-10/165 lbs) was third in tackles (44 solo/17asst. tackles, 2 Sacks, 2 INT) will fill in the other safety spot.
CCU's strength is defending the pass. Last year, CCU allowed only 141.4 yards per game. With an experienced secondary, CCU should continue their success. This is one area that Penn State may be challenged in the game.
Special Teams
Kicker Justin Durham (5-10/165 lbs) returns for the Chants after leading the team in scoring last year with 68 points, making 12 of 17 field goals and 32 of 36 extra points. James Pallassino and Ben Erdman (6-2/180 lbs) split kickoff duties in 2007 averaging 54.7 yards per kickoff for a net of 37 yards to start on the 32 yard line.
Eric O'Neal (5-10/185 lbs) is the likely kick return man after returning 14 kickoffs for a 26.4 yard average in 2007. This stat may not indicative of what will happen on August 30, since PSU frequently puts the ball through the end zone on kickoffs. Senior Marrio Norman (5-11/180 lbs) and Junior Jamar Anderson (6-0/170 lbs) and Sophomore Keon Cunningham (6-1/200 lbs) shared punt returns in 2007. Together they averaged 12 yards per return. CCU punt returners will be facing some of the best coverage in college football. In 2007, Penn State ranked 10th in the nation allowing only 5.35 yards per punt return.
Ben Erdman will be the Chants punter. Erdman averaged 35.2 yards per punt in 2007 with an average of 12 yard punt return. This nets out to 23.2 yards per punt. A lack of improvement in this area means that Chants will not win the field position battle, and Penn State will frequently start its possessions on a short field in CCU territory. Another mismatch exists in the CCU punt game. Last season, CCU Jamie Perkinson (So., 6-3/245 lbs) and Danny Bonifas (So., 6-2/215 lbs) shared duties at long and short snapper. Both are undersized and could easily be bull rushed.
Preseason Prediction
Penn State wins. But, by how much? As usual, JoePa will restrain the offense play selection. In a way, I like this approach. First, the team is able to concentrate on basics. Second, it doesn't give much tape for Oregon State to review. The size mismatch between PSU and CCU is probably so great that even a very conservative offense will win big. The old run right, run left, run up the middle may be too much for CCU. I'll provide a prediction on the score a week prior to the game, after we see how camp goes in August.
I'm Back
After taking July off, I am back. I recently updated my PSU Football roster by removing Baker and Taylor. I watched my first and only ESPN OTL. Only comment on that: yellow journalism, if you want to call it journalism.
Fall football camp is starting. Which means that I had to redecorate my office at work. Down went the Trout Unlimited calendar and up went the PSU Football calendar. I am counting down the days.
Although I didn't blog in July, I did do some research and started my preseason predictions. I have Coastal Carolina and Oregon State ready to be posted this morning. Syracuse and Temple are not too far being either.
Fall football camp is starting. Which means that I had to redecorate my office at work. Down went the Trout Unlimited calendar and up went the PSU Football calendar. I am counting down the days.
Although I didn't blog in July, I did do some research and started my preseason predictions. I have Coastal Carolina and Oregon State ready to be posted this morning. Syracuse and Temple are not too far being either.
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