Syracuse Preview

Overview

Part of being a Happy Jack is stepping back and realizing the grass is not always greener. Being realistically optimistic is a prime Happy Jack principle. If you were a Syracuse fan, the grass has to be greener. It doesn’t get much worse. So while all the Sad Jacks complain about JoePa, a lack of a succession plan, and poor recruiting I am positive that any Syracuse fan would trade places. I’m not saying they would become Penn State fans (they hate PSU), but they would take our situation in Syracuse and it would be a significant improvement.

The problems with the Orange begin with their HC, Greg Robinson. Don’t let anyone spin this otherwise.

According to Syracuse media archives, “The appointment of Greg Robinson as Syracuse University’s 27th head football coach on January 11, 2005, put the program in the hands of a mentor with Super Bowl rings and Bowl-game triumphs on his resume. Considered one of the top defensive minds in football, Robinson fit the characteristics Syracuse Director of Athletics Dr. Daryl Gross was looking for in a head football coach.

“Greg Robinson brings a winning attitude and championship football tradition to our program,“ Gross said when announcing Robinson’s appointment. “He has had nothing but success in postseason games with four Rose Bowl rings, eight overall bowl victories in eight appearances and seven NFL postseason wins, including two Super Bowls.”

(sarcasm on) I don’t know about you, but I am scared. There’s no way JoePa could beat a coach like that. (sarcasm off)

Since coming to Syracuse, Robinson has a completely unimpressive 7-28 record. Syracuse was 2-10 last year. One thing that can be said about Robinson, he has never lost a bowl game while at Syracuse – he hasn’t been to one.

Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 13, 2008
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Place: Carrier Dome
Coverage: ABC

This is the third game of the season. Penn State will have just played a pretty decent Oregon State team and had to show a few of its offensive weapons. The offense will definitely be a little bit more open than Coastal Carolina game. My key performance indicators for the game are:

1. Fine Tune the Defense
Sacks, sacks and more sacks. How to measure: PSU – 10+ sacks, SU has negative yards rushing.

2. Keep the BigTen Honest up the Middle
This game is not about playing SU, it is telegraphing messages to Big Ten opponents. PSU needs to throw up the middle – 15, 20, 30 yards down field. How to measure: PSU – 400+ yards passing.

3. No Mistakes
SU is the biggest Cup Cake on the schedule. (Yes, a bigger Cup Cake than CCU) PSU needs to remain focused for four quarters and make no mistakes. That is the sign of a championship team. How to measure: No penalties, no turnovers.

A Very Offensive, Offensive Line

The heart of all offenses is the offensive line. Syracuse is returning three starters to one of the nation’s least effective lines, a line that ranked 118th in rushing and sacks allowed. The returning starters will be on the right side with Ryan Durand (SR/6-5/303) at guard and Corey Shavers (SR/6-5/295) at tackle. Durand and Chavers have the most experience with 23 and 18 games in the last two seasons respectively. The third returning starter is Jim McKenzie (SO/6-4/285) who has 10 games of experience at center.

The left side of the line will see a pair of neophyte sophomores. Tucker Baumback (SO/6-5/307) will start at tackle and will have the onerous job of protecting quarterback Andrew Robinson’s blindside. Ryan Bartholomew (SO/6-3/290) is the likely starter at left guard. Bartholomew made two appearances as freshman.

In terms of depth, the Orange offensive line is very shallow. Sophomore Adam Rosner (SO/6-6/303) saw limited action in eight games in 2007 but showed poor skills in pass protection, hence Bartholomew will probably get the starting spot. At tackle, Jonathan Meldrum (SO/6-5/305) was a top favorite for a starting role prior to having knee surgery. A full recovery of Meldrum will be a great asset to the Orange.

The shallowness of the Orange line really shows through, considering after a cripple (Meldrum), Nick Speller (FR/6-5/310) a true freshman, is second on the depth chart. Speller practiced this spring after entering college prior to high school graduation.

Facing the PSU Defense
The Nittany Lions will be hitting full stride entering their third game of the year against Syracuse. Only one defensive lineman of the two-deep roster for the Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M will not return this year – seldom-used defensive end Chris Rogers. This means significant experience working together.

The PSU defense was 2nd in nation with 46 sacks and 7th in the nation in scoring defense and rushing defense. This creates a complete mismatch for the Orange. As the Orange were 118th in sacks allowed and in rushing.

After facing Oregon State in the week prior to the Syracuse match up, Penn State will not have to hide its defensive plays from other Big Ten teams – PSU will have already showed its cards. This amounts to a full scale onslaught against the Syracuse offensive line. A reasonable expectation, yes reasonable and quite probable, is for the talented and deep PSU defensive line to have double digit sacks that will aid in establishing negative yards rushing for the Orange.

Left end Josh Gains with three years of experience, and left tackle Ollie Ogbu with a year experience have too much strength and speed for the new left side of the Orange offensive line. This game will not be won in the trenches, but in the backfield as Orange quarterback Andrew Robinson will be repeatedly hurried, hit, and sacked from his blind side. Abe Koroma will be able to man handle any running back trying to pass the line of scrimmage and right end Maurice Evans will be in Robinson’s face forcing quick passes that will lead to incomplete passes and interceptions.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Robinson (JR/6-3/222) will be in his second year as a starter after going 154 of 292 for 2,192 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Robinson has to deal with four severe weaknesses.

1. An terrible offensive line
2. No wide receivers with experience
3. No running game
4. And Robinson is not mobile

Robinson has plenty of experience picking turf from his face guard as the offensive line gave up 54 sacks last year. At least in the Carrier Dome, Robinson doesn’t have to worry about getting dirty from natural turf.

Robinson will become quite familiar with Penn State defensive linemen, linebackers and an occasional cornerback.

Running Backs

SU was 118th in rushing last year. Part of the problem was injuries. Senior Curtis Brinkley (SR/5-9/203) broke his leg in the middle of October. He did not see any contact in spring practice. Sophomore Delone Carter (SO/5-10/214) has to overcome a dislocated hip. Carter sat out all of 2007 and did not see any contact in spring practice. Senior Tony Fiammetta (SR/6-1/239) started eight games in 2007 as a fullback. Fiammetta carried the ball three times for 8 yards on the season.

Reserves are Dough Hogue (SO/6-2/215) and Averin Collier (FR/5-10/200). As a sophomore, Hogue carried the ball 77 times for 251 yards and one TD in 2007. Collier, a grey shirt freshman, practiced this spring getting a jump on other incoming freshmen. Collier suffered a fracture in his left foot halfway through spring practice.

Receivers

Syracuse wide receiver, Mike Williams, the Orange’s leading receiver last season, has been suspended by the school over an academic issue, the university confirmed Tuesday, June 3rd. Sue Edson, assistant athletics director for communications, said Williams was not enrolled in school. Head coach Greg Robinson cited privacy laws for not elaborating on Williams’ situation.

With the loss of Williams, it leaves the struggling Orange without their top two offensive threats from 2007; like they had any. As a team, Syracuse scored 18 passing touchdowns in 2007, with Williams and Taj Smith accounting for 15 scores.

Filling in SU WR spots will be Lavar Lobdell (JR/6-3/210), Donte Davis (SO/6-0/173), and Dan Sheeran (SO/6-3/217). Lobdell played in 12 games with 8 receptions for 86 yards and no TDs in ‘07. Sheeran started one game but saw action in 12 games. Sheeran had 4 receptions for 24 yards and no TDs in ’07. Donte Davis has not touched the ball.

A number that stands out: SU has zero receivers on their ’08 team that have scored a TD.

Defensive Line

Syracuse’s defensive line is, quite frankly, horrible. SU’s rushing defense ranked 108th in 2007. Originally, three of four starters were slated to return in ’08, until DE Brandon Gilbeaux was suspended in June for academic issues. Gilbeaux started 12 games for the Orange in ’07, but with the nearly offensive defensive line play, maybe it is best that someone else fills his role. That would be Lamar Middleton (RFR/6-3/254) or Chris Basile (JR/6-4/280).

The other returning linemen for the Orange are NT Arthur Jones (JR/6-4/291) and DE Vincenzo Giruzzi (SR/6-3/241). Jones started in 11 games and had 32 solo tackles and 19 assists. Jones is definitely the highlight of the returning linemen. Giruzzi played in 12 games and started 7. He had 22 solo tackles and 20 assists.

Rounding out the SU line will probably be DT Nick Santiago (SR/6-3/294) who saw limited action last year. Santiago started two games but played in all 12 games in ’07. He had 8 solo tackles and 9 assists.

A number that stands out: Returning SU linemen (starter and non-starters) accounted for 2 sacks in ’07.

Linebackers

SU returns one full-time linebacker, MLB Jake Flaherty (SR/6-1/228). Flaherty started all 12 games last year and was second on the team in tackles; 45 solo, 50 assists. Flaherty will be flanked by SLB Parker Cantey (SO/6-3/218) and WLB Mike Mele (SO/6-0/218). Cantey and Mele both played in 11 games and started 2 in ’07. Cantey had 16 solo tackles and 12 assists, Mele has 13 solo tackles and 16 assists.

This is a fairly inexperienced unit, that basically has nowhere to go but up.

Secondary

SU’s pass defense was 102nd worse defense in college football last year.

The defensive backfield for SU lacks experience. Two regular starters return, LC Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) and SS A.J. Brown (SR/6-0/201). At the right corner spot, Nico Scott will start (SO/5-10/180) and at free safety, Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200). This quartet saw action in all 12 games last season and managed a meager 3 interceptions.

Special Teams

Here are two numbers that say it all about SU special teams.
Punt Returns: 10
Kickoff Returns: 69

Those numbers are for the entire 2007 season. Why is that? Well, opponents were successful 47% and 46% of the time converting 3rd and 4th downs respectively against SU. Hence, only 10 punt returns and a bunch of kickoff returns after teams scored on SU. On the 10 punt returns, SU gained a total 46 yards with a long punt return of 13 yards. The good news for Penn State is that SU is returning their two starting punt returners, Ryan Howard (SR/5-8/185) and Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200).

Sixty-nine kickoff returns? Yes, that’s correct, Syracuse had plenty of practice in kickoff returns because opponents scored so much. Doing the bulk of kickoff returns in 2007 was Max Suter (SO/5-11/190). Suter had 51 returns for 1299 yards with a long of 93 yards and 1 TD. The 93 yard kick return must be SU’s only highlight of the season. Suter returns this season with backup Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) who returned 14 kicks in ’07 for 352 yards.

Performing place kicking duties for SU this year will be Patrick Shadle (SR/5-8/209). In ’07, opponents netted 35.9 yards on average against Shadle on kickoffs, with an average starting position on the 34 yard line. SU’s field position prevented Shadle from kicking many field goals. He was 10 for 14 in the 2007 season, with a long field goal of 50 yards. Shadle is pretty accurate in PATs going 23 for 24 in ’07.

The one bright spot of SU special teams is their punting game. Rob Long (SO/6-4/175) returns after averaging 41.9 yards on 75 punts in ’07. That is actually very good and show consistency.

The only other thing that stands out about SU’s special teams is their long snapper, Max Leo (JR/5-11/210). That’s right, 210lbs. That just smells like a bull rush up the middle to me.

Preseason Prediction

While the game is in Syracuse, the Carrier Dome will be half-filled with Lions fans. The Dome will not be hostile. Syracuse is the worse of the Cup Cakes that PSU faces this year. GRob is a failure as a coach. This will be an easy win for the Lions and perhaps the most lopsided victory Penn State has ever had over a Syracuse team. Historically speaking, how bad Penn State beats SU is a prime indicator of just how bad SU really is.