Syracuse Preview

Overview

Part of being a Happy Jack is stepping back and realizing the grass is not always greener. Being realistically optimistic is a prime Happy Jack principle. If you were a Syracuse fan, the grass has to be greener. It doesn’t get much worse. So while all the Sad Jacks complain about JoePa, a lack of a succession plan, and poor recruiting I am positive that any Syracuse fan would trade places. I’m not saying they would become Penn State fans (they hate PSU), but they would take our situation in Syracuse and it would be a significant improvement.

The problems with the Orange begin with their HC, Greg Robinson. Don’t let anyone spin this otherwise.

According to Syracuse media archives, “The appointment of Greg Robinson as Syracuse University’s 27th head football coach on January 11, 2005, put the program in the hands of a mentor with Super Bowl rings and Bowl-game triumphs on his resume. Considered one of the top defensive minds in football, Robinson fit the characteristics Syracuse Director of Athletics Dr. Daryl Gross was looking for in a head football coach.

“Greg Robinson brings a winning attitude and championship football tradition to our program,“ Gross said when announcing Robinson’s appointment. “He has had nothing but success in postseason games with four Rose Bowl rings, eight overall bowl victories in eight appearances and seven NFL postseason wins, including two Super Bowls.”

(sarcasm on) I don’t know about you, but I am scared. There’s no way JoePa could beat a coach like that. (sarcasm off)

Since coming to Syracuse, Robinson has a completely unimpressive 7-28 record. Syracuse was 2-10 last year. One thing that can be said about Robinson, he has never lost a bowl game while at Syracuse – he hasn’t been to one.

Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 13, 2008
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Place: Carrier Dome
Coverage: ABC

This is the third game of the season. Penn State will have just played a pretty decent Oregon State team and had to show a few of its offensive weapons. The offense will definitely be a little bit more open than Coastal Carolina game. My key performance indicators for the game are:

1. Fine Tune the Defense
Sacks, sacks and more sacks. How to measure: PSU – 10+ sacks, SU has negative yards rushing.

2. Keep the BigTen Honest up the Middle
This game is not about playing SU, it is telegraphing messages to Big Ten opponents. PSU needs to throw up the middle – 15, 20, 30 yards down field. How to measure: PSU – 400+ yards passing.

3. No Mistakes
SU is the biggest Cup Cake on the schedule. (Yes, a bigger Cup Cake than CCU) PSU needs to remain focused for four quarters and make no mistakes. That is the sign of a championship team. How to measure: No penalties, no turnovers.

A Very Offensive, Offensive Line

The heart of all offenses is the offensive line. Syracuse is returning three starters to one of the nation’s least effective lines, a line that ranked 118th in rushing and sacks allowed. The returning starters will be on the right side with Ryan Durand (SR/6-5/303) at guard and Corey Shavers (SR/6-5/295) at tackle. Durand and Chavers have the most experience with 23 and 18 games in the last two seasons respectively. The third returning starter is Jim McKenzie (SO/6-4/285) who has 10 games of experience at center.

The left side of the line will see a pair of neophyte sophomores. Tucker Baumback (SO/6-5/307) will start at tackle and will have the onerous job of protecting quarterback Andrew Robinson’s blindside. Ryan Bartholomew (SO/6-3/290) is the likely starter at left guard. Bartholomew made two appearances as freshman.

In terms of depth, the Orange offensive line is very shallow. Sophomore Adam Rosner (SO/6-6/303) saw limited action in eight games in 2007 but showed poor skills in pass protection, hence Bartholomew will probably get the starting spot. At tackle, Jonathan Meldrum (SO/6-5/305) was a top favorite for a starting role prior to having knee surgery. A full recovery of Meldrum will be a great asset to the Orange.

The shallowness of the Orange line really shows through, considering after a cripple (Meldrum), Nick Speller (FR/6-5/310) a true freshman, is second on the depth chart. Speller practiced this spring after entering college prior to high school graduation.

Facing the PSU Defense
The Nittany Lions will be hitting full stride entering their third game of the year against Syracuse. Only one defensive lineman of the two-deep roster for the Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M will not return this year – seldom-used defensive end Chris Rogers. This means significant experience working together.

The PSU defense was 2nd in nation with 46 sacks and 7th in the nation in scoring defense and rushing defense. This creates a complete mismatch for the Orange. As the Orange were 118th in sacks allowed and in rushing.

After facing Oregon State in the week prior to the Syracuse match up, Penn State will not have to hide its defensive plays from other Big Ten teams – PSU will have already showed its cards. This amounts to a full scale onslaught against the Syracuse offensive line. A reasonable expectation, yes reasonable and quite probable, is for the talented and deep PSU defensive line to have double digit sacks that will aid in establishing negative yards rushing for the Orange.

Left end Josh Gains with three years of experience, and left tackle Ollie Ogbu with a year experience have too much strength and speed for the new left side of the Orange offensive line. This game will not be won in the trenches, but in the backfield as Orange quarterback Andrew Robinson will be repeatedly hurried, hit, and sacked from his blind side. Abe Koroma will be able to man handle any running back trying to pass the line of scrimmage and right end Maurice Evans will be in Robinson’s face forcing quick passes that will lead to incomplete passes and interceptions.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Robinson (JR/6-3/222) will be in his second year as a starter after going 154 of 292 for 2,192 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Robinson has to deal with four severe weaknesses.

1. An terrible offensive line
2. No wide receivers with experience
3. No running game
4. And Robinson is not mobile

Robinson has plenty of experience picking turf from his face guard as the offensive line gave up 54 sacks last year. At least in the Carrier Dome, Robinson doesn’t have to worry about getting dirty from natural turf.

Robinson will become quite familiar with Penn State defensive linemen, linebackers and an occasional cornerback.

Running Backs

SU was 118th in rushing last year. Part of the problem was injuries. Senior Curtis Brinkley (SR/5-9/203) broke his leg in the middle of October. He did not see any contact in spring practice. Sophomore Delone Carter (SO/5-10/214) has to overcome a dislocated hip. Carter sat out all of 2007 and did not see any contact in spring practice. Senior Tony Fiammetta (SR/6-1/239) started eight games in 2007 as a fullback. Fiammetta carried the ball three times for 8 yards on the season.

Reserves are Dough Hogue (SO/6-2/215) and Averin Collier (FR/5-10/200). As a sophomore, Hogue carried the ball 77 times for 251 yards and one TD in 2007. Collier, a grey shirt freshman, practiced this spring getting a jump on other incoming freshmen. Collier suffered a fracture in his left foot halfway through spring practice.

Receivers

Syracuse wide receiver, Mike Williams, the Orange’s leading receiver last season, has been suspended by the school over an academic issue, the university confirmed Tuesday, June 3rd. Sue Edson, assistant athletics director for communications, said Williams was not enrolled in school. Head coach Greg Robinson cited privacy laws for not elaborating on Williams’ situation.

With the loss of Williams, it leaves the struggling Orange without their top two offensive threats from 2007; like they had any. As a team, Syracuse scored 18 passing touchdowns in 2007, with Williams and Taj Smith accounting for 15 scores.

Filling in SU WR spots will be Lavar Lobdell (JR/6-3/210), Donte Davis (SO/6-0/173), and Dan Sheeran (SO/6-3/217). Lobdell played in 12 games with 8 receptions for 86 yards and no TDs in ‘07. Sheeran started one game but saw action in 12 games. Sheeran had 4 receptions for 24 yards and no TDs in ’07. Donte Davis has not touched the ball.

A number that stands out: SU has zero receivers on their ’08 team that have scored a TD.

Defensive Line

Syracuse’s defensive line is, quite frankly, horrible. SU’s rushing defense ranked 108th in 2007. Originally, three of four starters were slated to return in ’08, until DE Brandon Gilbeaux was suspended in June for academic issues. Gilbeaux started 12 games for the Orange in ’07, but with the nearly offensive defensive line play, maybe it is best that someone else fills his role. That would be Lamar Middleton (RFR/6-3/254) or Chris Basile (JR/6-4/280).

The other returning linemen for the Orange are NT Arthur Jones (JR/6-4/291) and DE Vincenzo Giruzzi (SR/6-3/241). Jones started in 11 games and had 32 solo tackles and 19 assists. Jones is definitely the highlight of the returning linemen. Giruzzi played in 12 games and started 7. He had 22 solo tackles and 20 assists.

Rounding out the SU line will probably be DT Nick Santiago (SR/6-3/294) who saw limited action last year. Santiago started two games but played in all 12 games in ’07. He had 8 solo tackles and 9 assists.

A number that stands out: Returning SU linemen (starter and non-starters) accounted for 2 sacks in ’07.

Linebackers

SU returns one full-time linebacker, MLB Jake Flaherty (SR/6-1/228). Flaherty started all 12 games last year and was second on the team in tackles; 45 solo, 50 assists. Flaherty will be flanked by SLB Parker Cantey (SO/6-3/218) and WLB Mike Mele (SO/6-0/218). Cantey and Mele both played in 11 games and started 2 in ’07. Cantey had 16 solo tackles and 12 assists, Mele has 13 solo tackles and 16 assists.

This is a fairly inexperienced unit, that basically has nowhere to go but up.

Secondary

SU’s pass defense was 102nd worse defense in college football last year.

The defensive backfield for SU lacks experience. Two regular starters return, LC Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) and SS A.J. Brown (SR/6-0/201). At the right corner spot, Nico Scott will start (SO/5-10/180) and at free safety, Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200). This quartet saw action in all 12 games last season and managed a meager 3 interceptions.

Special Teams

Here are two numbers that say it all about SU special teams.
Punt Returns: 10
Kickoff Returns: 69

Those numbers are for the entire 2007 season. Why is that? Well, opponents were successful 47% and 46% of the time converting 3rd and 4th downs respectively against SU. Hence, only 10 punt returns and a bunch of kickoff returns after teams scored on SU. On the 10 punt returns, SU gained a total 46 yards with a long punt return of 13 yards. The good news for Penn State is that SU is returning their two starting punt returners, Ryan Howard (SR/5-8/185) and Bruce Williams (SR/6-0/200).

Sixty-nine kickoff returns? Yes, that’s correct, Syracuse had plenty of practice in kickoff returns because opponents scored so much. Doing the bulk of kickoff returns in 2007 was Max Suter (SO/5-11/190). Suter had 51 returns for 1299 yards with a long of 93 yards and 1 TD. The 93 yard kick return must be SU’s only highlight of the season. Suter returns this season with backup Mike Holmes (SO/5-11/185) who returned 14 kicks in ’07 for 352 yards.

Performing place kicking duties for SU this year will be Patrick Shadle (SR/5-8/209). In ’07, opponents netted 35.9 yards on average against Shadle on kickoffs, with an average starting position on the 34 yard line. SU’s field position prevented Shadle from kicking many field goals. He was 10 for 14 in the 2007 season, with a long field goal of 50 yards. Shadle is pretty accurate in PATs going 23 for 24 in ’07.

The one bright spot of SU special teams is their punting game. Rob Long (SO/6-4/175) returns after averaging 41.9 yards on 75 punts in ’07. That is actually very good and show consistency.

The only other thing that stands out about SU’s special teams is their long snapper, Max Leo (JR/5-11/210). That’s right, 210lbs. That just smells like a bull rush up the middle to me.

Preseason Prediction

While the game is in Syracuse, the Carrier Dome will be half-filled with Lions fans. The Dome will not be hostile. Syracuse is the worse of the Cup Cakes that PSU faces this year. GRob is a failure as a coach. This will be an easy win for the Lions and perhaps the most lopsided victory Penn State has ever had over a Syracuse team. Historically speaking, how bad Penn State beats SU is a prime indicator of just how bad SU really is.

Oregon State Preview

Overview
This is the first ever meeting between the Oregon State Beavers and PSU. OrSU is in a rebuilding year after finishing last season with a 9-4 record including a win over Maryland in the Emerald Bowl. The Beavers lose two starting offensive linemen and their entire starting defensive front seven. While these may sound like severe losses that can’t be overcome, it isn’t actually the case. OrSU linemen do have experience and talent. But do the OrSU linemen have enough time in their current positions in actual game situations as a working unit? This game will tell.

OrSU will be visiting Happy Valley for their second game of the season. Their first game is against Stanford. The difference between Stanford football and PSU football are too many to list. Penn State will have a huge advantage in the home crowd that will be several orders of magnitude louder than Stanford. This will be the biggest venue that OrSU has every played and perhaps the most hostile one.

Looking Forward to the Game
Date: September 6, 2008
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Place: Beaver Stadium
Coverage: ABC

After the first week of conservative football against Coastal Carolina, Penn State will have to show more of their offense to win against OrSU. This game has a definite purpose on the PSU schedule. More than any other game in September, the OrSU game is a true game of preparation. OrSU is faster, stronger and better than all other teams PSU faces in September. Penn State will have bump it up a notch and focus on the following things to claim victory:

1. Ground Attack
OrSU was ranked #1 in the country in rushing defense last year. While the Beavers have a new defensive front seven, they are still expected to be good. By far, OrSU will provide the best defensive challenge to PSU in September. PSU needs to establish a ground attack in this game. If they don’t, you will see my high expectations diminish for the year. How to measure: Combined rushing yards (TB, FB, QB, SL) over 200 yards – tailback over 100 yards.

2. Home Field Advantage
Everyone in the Nittany Nation talks about the home field advantage. Coach Paterno needs to use this to his advantage. If possible, kick-off to OrSU to the start the game. Kick the ball through the end zone. Play begins on the 20. Do what it takes to have a three and out series with OrSU punting from its own 10 yard line. Use the short field to immediately score. There a number of variations on this, for instance and intercepted pass returned for a touchdown. And of course, sacking the OrSU QB would definitely pump up the crowd. The outcome desired is show strong defense and quickly scoring capability. How to measure: Three and out on first OrSU series. TD on first PSU possession.

3. Field Position
There would be nothing that I would enjoy more than a defensive battle, but what I enjoy is quite different that what pollsters enjoy. PSU needs to put points on the board, and do that frequently. Given OrSU’s strong defense, PSU has to take advantage of field position. This is done through PSU’s defense and special teams. Given a short field, PSU’s offense is more likely to put up more points. How to measure: Average non-kickoff starting field position: PSU 45 yard line.

Offensive Line

The Beaver’s offensive line lost two very good linemen, guard Roy Schuening and center Kyle DeVan to graduation. A third lineman, Tavita Thompson (SR/6-6/308) is ineligible to play until November 1. Thompson started the first 7 games of last season before being ruled ineligible. HC Mike Riley has not disclosed the reason for Thompson’s ineligibility citing student privacy laws. With the loss of three starters, OrSU has a lot of rebuilding to do.

This is nearly a complete overhaul of the OrSU line. PSU is returning all starters on their offensive line. This gives PSU a significant edge in game experience – particularly when playing as a unit and in the same position. OrSU has had to do some position juggling, moving players from one side of the line to the other. LT Andy Levitre (SR/6-3/324) started 12 games last year. Levitre was moved to LT for the final three games after starting 9 games at RT. At RG, Adam Speer (SR/6-3/301) is the leading candidate. Speer started ten games at LG and moved to RG towards the end of last season.

Jeremy Perry (SR/6-2/334) is the likely starter at LG. Perry was the projected starter last season at LG before suffering a broken leg in the first game of the season. Perry’s rehab is vital to the Beavers success. Perry was on the Outland and Lombardi watch lists for the past two years. With the loss of DeVan, OrSU has two main choices for the center position, Marcus Henderson (SR/6-4/277) and Ryan Pohl (RSO/6-3/288). Center is the most skilled position on the line, and filling DeVan’s position will be difficult.

The RT spot, previously held by ineligible Thompson, is a question mark. Michael Cole (SR/6-6/298) a JUCO transfer saw action last season at tackle. Starting on the depth chart according to Rivals.com is Mike Remmers (RFR/6-4/283) and backup Timi Oshinowo (SO/6-5/308).

HC Mike Riley is optimistic, stating, “The silver lining of last season on the line is that several guys experienced a new position and we had some guys learn what it’s like to start in this league. No question we have two very big holes to fill with the loss of Schuening and DeVan, but at the same time we are in better position this year for some new guys to make major contributions.”

Quarterbacks

There may be a quarterback controversy in Corvallis. Sean Canfield (JR/6-4/218) traded injuries with Lyle Moevao (JR/5-11/226) last season. Canfield started the first nine games of 2007 until he had an injury to his throwing shoulder. Moevao picked up the slack until he was injured and Canfield replaced Moevao in the Emerald Bowl with a 21-14 win over Maryland.

Canfield finished the 2007 season with 1,661 yards passing, 9 TDs with 165 completions on 286 attempts. Canfield threw 15 interceptions on the year. Moevao passed 876 yards (77-147-6) with two TDs. Moevao established himself as a leader, going undefeated in games that he started, including a Civil War victory over Oregon. Moevao received the majority of snaps at spring camp since Canfield was rehabilitating his injury.

Running Backs

So here’s the deal with OrSU’s running game: See Offensive Line. If the Beaver’s offensive line can come together, then there is some hope. OrSU needs to replace both their tailback and fullback this season. Ryan McCants (RFR/6-1/225) is the apparent starter at tailback. There is no fullback on the roster, so a change in positions may be in order to fill the position. (Looking at OrSU’s roster there are no running backs in the 240lbs range.) Backing up McCants will probably be JUCO transfer Jeremy Francis (JR/5-11/217).

On paper, the outlook for OrSU’s running game is not great. They need to break in a new tailback with essentially a new offensive line. That takes a lot of work. Facing PSU in the second game of the season isn’t enough time. However, OrSU’s running game will more than likely be a completely different beast by the end of the season.
Receivers

OrSU has a boat load of tight ends. Howard Croom (JR/6-3/248) leads the pack at starting TE. The Beavers run a lot of 2 and 3 receiver sets. At SE, Sammie Stroughter (SR/6-0/189) returns after a season ending injury last year. Stroughter was an All-American in 2006 and is a force to be reckoned. Stroughter will be backed up with Chris Johnson (SR/6-1/198). Johnson played in nine games last season with 7 receptions for a total of 93 yards.

James Rodgers (SO/5-7/179) has speed. Rodgers will play any other receiver positions, but will start at either SL or FL. Rodgers is also known to run the “devastating” Fly-Sweep. This should not pose a significant problem for the Penn State defense. It is known quantity, and PSU has the defensive speed to shut it down.

At SL, Shane Morales (SR/6-1/199) returns after 13 games of experience in 2007 when he had 16 receptions for 115 yards. At FL, Darrell Catchings (SO/5-11/174) is the team’s leading returning receiver. Catchings had 33 receptions for 386 yards in 2007.

The receiving corps is probably the most talented and stable units on the Beavers. In terms of impact in the PSU game, a lot is up to Penn State’s defensive line. PSU returns a highly experience defensive line, perhaps one of the best in the nation, that is able to rush and sack quarterbacks. If Canfield is on his can most of the game, the OrSU receiving corps will be neutralized.

Defensive Line

The Beavers lead all of college football in rushing defense in 2007. In 2008, the entire front seven are gone. However, three returning players saw considerable action. Pernnell Booth (SR/6-1/302) has three years of experience at DT. Booth missed spring camp with a foot injury. Victor Butler (SR/6-2/238) and Slade Norris (SR/6-3/254) have earned three and two varsity letters respectively at DE. Butler and Norris combined for 19.5 sacks and 213 lost yards as third down pass rushers last season.

The real big question mark for OrSU’s defensive line is at the other tackle spot and backups across the board. Stephen Paea (SO/6-1/303) is a JUCO transfer is at the top of the depth chart at the other tackle position. The only other lineman that has earned a letter is Mitchell Hunt (SO/6-2/285), although he has been plagued by injuries for the past two years.

The OrSU defensive line will be facing a solid PSU offensive line that has all returning starters and nearly two years of playing together. This will be a formable battle in the trenches for the Beavers.

Linebackers

The loss of OrSU’s defensive front seven includes three linebackers, Derrick Dogget, Alan Darlin and Joey LaRocque. However, the Beavers are not starting from scratch in filling their linebacker spots. There are several linebackers that have considerable experience. At WLB, Keith Pankey (SO/6-3/210) saw enough action last year to earn a letter. Pankey played in 10 games with 8 solo tackles and 2 assists. Pankey will probably be backed up by Dwight Roberson (SO/6-0/234) who had 10 solo tackles and 2 assists last year.

At the SLB spot, Keaton Kristick (JR/6-3/227) returns after having playing in 13 games with 6 solo tackles and 9 assists. At MLB, Bryant Cornell (SR/6-1/235) will be sole starting senior of OrSU’s linebackers. Cornell has lettered in all three of his three years with the Beavers, playing in 12 games in 2007 with 5 solo tackles and 8 assists.

There really is no comparison between PSU and OrSU’s linebackers. PSU is Linebacker-U. Despite the loss of Sean Lee to injury, PSU has a stable of linebackers and the best linebacker coach in college football. PSU returns with experience and talent.

Secondary

OrSU’s secondary is the most experienced defensive unit on the Beavers. Cornerbacks, Brandon Hughs (SR/5-11/177) and Keenan Lewis (SR/6-1/199) both have lettered in the three previous seasons. Hughes and Lewis have a combined 65 starts. At the safety position, Al Afalava (SR/5-11/212) and Greg Layborum (SR/5-10/201) return. Bryan Payton another senior safety left the football program in July after playing in 26 games with six starts. (This was probably due to academics.)

Afalava is the returning team leader in tackles. Afalava had had 56 solo tackles, 8 assists with one sack, no INTs. Hughes is 2nd in returning tacklers with 43 solos and 14 assists and 2 picks.

It will be interesting to see how PSU’s receiving tandem of Butler, Norwood, and Williams handle this talented OrSU secondary. The amount of experience between PSU receivers and OrSU’s secondary is immense – and talent on both sides of the ball. But of course to keep this Happy Jack happy, all that Penn State needs to do is handoff the ball.

Special Teams

On the kicking side of special teams, the Beavers have little experience. OrSU is breaking in a new kicker, Justin Kahut (SO/5-8/158). Kahut made one field goal in 2007 on one attempt. Sean Sehmen (JR/5-11/195) is a transfer from Western New Mexico University and has yet to see a snap as a Beaver. Sehmen is slated as the starting punter for OrSU.

Sammie Stroughter, the talented WR will see punt return duties with Taylor Kavanaugh (JR/5-10/174). Kavanaugh will also see action as the holder. James Rodgers and Patrick Henderson (JR/5-10/180) will be returning kicks. Rodgers returned 5 kicks in 2007 for 122 yards. Henderson returned 1 kick for 11 yards. Stroughter is perhaps the most dangerous return man if he can remain healthy. However, facing PSU punt defense is a difficult task. PSU allowed a stingy 5.3 yards per punt return in 2007.

In terms of PSU special teams, Williams and Wallace will have return duties. Williams returned 23 punts for 254 yards, 1 TD on a long punt return of 78 yards. Wallace is returning kickoffs after have 22 returns and 581 yards in 2007. Wallace had a long kick off return of 97 yards for a TD. On the other side of the ball, Jeremy Boone led the Big Ten in punting in 2008 and Kevin Kelly is Mr. Reliable when it comes to PATs and field goals.

Preseason Prediction
Penn State wins. With OrSU replacing their defensive front seven and this being the second game of the season, OrSU’s defensive will not have hit their stride. OrSU has to face a well seasoned PSU offensive line, with all starters returning. PSU’s defensive line will also be too much for OrSU’s offensive line to handle. This game will be won in the trenches.